martes, 4 de noviembre de 2008

El desplome de "Europa del Norte"

Hasta hace unas semanas era considerado el mejor lugar para vivir del mundo. Y sus habitantes, los más felices del planeta. Pero, arrasada por el terremoto de la crisis financiera, Islandia se ha convertido en un país en bancarrota, con una población en estado de 'shock' y unas autoridades balbuceantes. ¿Un anticipo de lo que les espera a otros países?

Añadir imagenSu bolsa cayó un 77%, después de que el Estado decidiera nacionalizar sus tres grandes bancos. Agotado su crédito en unos mercados de capitales paralizados por la crisis, el sistema financiero islandés agoniza como si de un Northern Rock con Parlamento se tratara, sin más solución que la improbable ayuda de emergencia del Fondo Monetario Internacional y de la Unión Europea, completando las líneas de crédito adelantadas por Rusia. Quizás, y es lo más probable, ni siquiera así, Islandia logre evitar el colapso.

Para tener una referencia del limitado margen de maniobra del Estado ante el disparado nivel de endeudamiento del sistema bancario de este país de 300.000 habitantes, basta pensar que éste supera en doce veces el Producto Interior Bruto (PIB) nacional, mientras que Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS Halifax, Lloyds y Barclays superan en cinco lo que es capaz de producir la economía británica en un año. Con todo, son muchos analistas (incluido Martin Wolf, de Financial Times) los que dudan que las inyecciones y avales multimillonarios (550.000 millones de euros, para empezar a hablar) del Gobierno británico en los bancos, con tomas de control incluidas, vayan a resultar suficientes para salvar el sistema. Cuánto más en el caso islandés, un país con reservas de divisas por tan sólo 2.000 millones de euros y bancos con activos por 100.000 millones. Algo que deja sin margen de maniobra a su banco central como prestamista de última instancia del sistema para paliar la falta de liquidez actual, en línea de como lo han estado haciendo la FED y el BCE en EEUU y Europa, respectivamente.

¿Pero cómo llegó a alcanzar ese grado de endeudamiento un país tan pequeño? Al tener una tasa de inflación tradicional y unos tipos de interés más altos que la media de, por ejemplo, la UE, los bancos aprovecharon para endeudarse en mercados internacionales y ganar dinero prestándolo en su país de origen, financiando el diferencial de crecimiento nacional. Ésto motivo un auge del consumo privado interno que dio pie a una acumulación de deuda externa neta del 840% de la producción, la mayor del mundo.

De la noche a la mañana
Hace unos días, un portal financiero británico hacía pública la carta interna remitida por los consejeros delegados de Landsbanki, una de las grandes entidades nacionalizadas del país, a los empleados: "Los tiempos han cambiado. En las últimas semanas, los mercados financieros internacionales se han deteriorado como no se veía desde comienzos de siglo. Muchos bancos han caído y otros lo harán. Los Gobiernos están tomando medidas extraordinarias para adaptarse a los cambios. Islandia es ahora la víctima de la falta de liquidez que azota el mundo". Hace tan sólo doce meses, Landsbanki pujaba por adquirir el banco de inversión británico Close Brothers, accionista y propietario de parte de la española Atlas Capital, en todo un reflejo de la pujanza a que se habían acostumbrado los bancos locales en los tiempos de la deuda barata. Islandia se había convertido en un país sólo apto para un turismo de lujo por sus elevados precios, con unas prestaciones sociales envidiables y con pobres de Mercedes de segunda mano. Un lugar donde el dinero se daba por descontado, pero donde ha desaparecido con la velocidad con que el agua se va por el desagüe.

Ayer, los islandeses, que poseen una moneda (la corona) que nadie quiere en momentos de crisis, acumulaban viveres y dinero ante el peligro de un corralito al estilo argentino. Al igual que el pueblo pide ahora la cabeza de los banqueros más renombrados de la City y de Wall Street, los islandeses deben pedir la capitulación de sus líderes políticos. Los mismos que no querían entrar en la Unión Europea para seguir explotando las asimetrías de los mercados, y les han llevado a unos tipos de interés del 15,5% (a final de 2005 estaban en el 8%, hoy han aprobado bajarlos al 12%) y un estrangulamiento de sus importaciones. Europa debe aprender del caso islandés, para que la rendición no sea en balde. Sobre todo, debe hacerlo España.

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